Third day of Easter getaway mayhem: Staff sickness due to Covid creates huge queues at Manchester

By Luke Andrews, Health Reporter for MailOnline

Covid is now more rife in England than at any other time during the virus crisis, the biggest Covid surveillance scheme suggested last week.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimated more than 4.1million people had the virus on any given day over the week to March 26, equivalent to one in 13 being infected.

The figure is the highest ever recorded in England, topping the previous peak of 3.7m at the height of the Omicron wave in January. It is also 18 per cent higher than a fortnight ago.

In the most Covid-ridden towns of Bournemouth, Poole and Christchurch, as many as one in nine people were thought to have the virus. And infections have soared to pandemic highs in all over-35s.

Britain’s outbreak as a whole is also bigger than ever, with 4.9m now thought to be infected — up from 4.3m last week.

Statisticians said England’s surge was being driven by the more transmissible version of Omicron, scientifically named BA. Although, ministers admit that ditching the final Covid restrictions last month also fueled the uptick.

Despite the mass testing project warning that cases show no signs of slowing yet, top scientists are hopeful that the worst may be over. Official numbers — reliant on people getting tested, as opposed to random swabbing — have been falling for a week, bolstering hopes that the virus was running out of steam.

Hospitalisations are still ticking upwards, but official figures suggest about half of admissions are now ‘incidental’ — when someone is admitted to hospital for something else such as a fall but then tests positive for Covid. NHS intensive care rates have barely budged, despite cases continuing to soar.

The record-breaking cases were revealed on the day England entered a ‘new era’ of the pandemic, with millions no longer able to get free Covid swabs to check whether they have the virus for the first time in a year.

Experts last week argued the timing of the end of free testing ‘couldn’t really be worse’, and that the country would now have to rely on the public ‘doing the right thing’ and getting tested when unwell. A chorus of gloomy Government advisers last week issued a string of new warnings about the pressure on the health service.

But ministers have insisted it is the ‘right’ moment to scrap the mass-testing regime, which cost No10 up to £2bn-a-month. Only the most vulnerable and health care workers are still able to get free swabs.

The ONS survey is seen as the gold-standard for tracking the pandemic by ministers because it relies on more than 100,000 random swabs, meaning it can reach groups which would normally avoid getting tested.

From last week it became England’s main method for monitoring Covid outbreaks, with the universal testing offer coming to an end.

But it lags about a week behind the situation on the ground. And it is also set to be scaled down in the coming weeks under Government plans. 

Results from the ONS survey also revealed infections have hit a record-high in Wales, where one in 14 people now have the virus (212,000 cases last week).

Scotland recorded the highest infection rate in the country with one in 12 having Covid (451,000), but this was down five per cent on last week’s record.  Northern Ireland saw its cases rise 13 per cent to one in 15 being infected (123,000).

In England, all legal Covid requirements came to an end in February, although guidance to wear face coverings in crowded places and isolate when suffering symptoms or testing positive is still in place. The same approach is in place in Northern Ireland.

And guidance is similar in Wales, after laws to wear masks and isolate after testing positive were scrapped on Monday. But people are still told to wear masks in health and social care settings.

But rules are stricter in Scotland, where laws set out that individuals must wear masks in shops, hospitality venues and on public transport. And infected people are still required to isolate for at least seven days. 

Kara Steel, senior statistician for the ONS Covid survey, said: ‘Infection levels remain high, with the highest levels recorded in our survey seen in England and Wales and notable increases among older age groups.

‘The rapid rise continues to be fuelled by the growth of the Omicron BA.2 variant across the UK.

‘We continue to closely monitor the data and remain thankful to all of our participants for their contribution.’

ONS statistics showed cases rose across all regions of England last week and among over-25s.

They reached record levels among over-50s, who are most vulnerable to the virus.

But in a sign the wave may be slowing cases plateaued among the under-25s, who have had the highest infection rates throughout much of the pandemic.

Professor James Naismith, director of Oxford University’s Rosalind Franklin Institute said the figures showed BA.2 ‘is extremely good at infecting people’.

‘It remains my view that unless you are completely shielded or are not susceptible to the virus, by the summer you are more likely to have been infected with BA.2 than not,’ he said.

‘No part of the UK has currently implemented effective control measures, the limit on prevalence of the virus is simply the proportion of susceptible people.

‘This is literally living with the virus by being infected with it.

‘Omicron BA.2 is less severe but the main reason we have endured this wave with many fewer deaths is vaccination. Vaccination has meant the elderly and vulnerable have been able to fight off this virus without very serious illness after being infected.’

He added: ‘With such a high prevalence, as a country we have decided to run a long covid19 experiment. Long covid19 is recognised illness and there are now some clear markers for the disease.

‘It seems likely with some evidence but not yet conclusively proven that vaccination significantly reduces the likelihood and severity of long covid, more work on long covid is urgently needed.

‘The safety and efficacy of vaccines have been proven beyond any doubt.’

Meanwhile, daily Government data shows the UK’s Covid cases have now fallen for five days in a row.

UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) dashboard data showed another 69,811 infections were logged in the last 24 hours, which was down nine per cent on last Friday.

Deaths continued to rise, however, with 191 recorded today — up 11 per cent on the same time last week. Another 2,509 hospitalisations with the virus were also recorded on March 28, the latest date available, up 12 per cent in a week and the most since late December at the height of the Omicron wave. 

The UKHSA data suggest cases have now fallen for six days in a row.

They differ from the ONS in that they are based on the number of positive tests reported nationally, and that they are released every day rather than every week.

But they are a potential early signal that the current wave may already be slowing down.  

Sir Patrick, the Government’s chief scientific adviser, yesterday told MPs earlier today that ‘infections are beginning to turn so we may be quite close to, or at, the peak and it may start coming down shortly’.

But other top scientists today warned the health service is under severe pressure and Britons should continue to wear masks to limit the spread of the virus, the day before free Covid tests for all is scrapped.

Sir Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer, told a conference: ‘The waves are still occurring.’ He added they will ‘certainly’ continue. 

And Dame Jenny Harries, head of the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), called for the nation to keep wearing face masks because infection rates are so high. 

She said that Britons should be ‘very sensible and take precautions in periods of high prevalence as we have now’.

The record high ONS case rates come as the universal testing offer is dropped in England after it cost £2billion-a-month to run in January.

Professor Tim Spector from King’s College London, who runs the Zoe Covid tracking app, said the timing of the end of free testing ‘couldn’t really be worse’.

He warned England was now in a situation of ‘having to rely on the public to actually do the right thing and get these tests themselves when they get sick’.

He told Times Radio that ‘if we’re not having free testing, let’s have a clear policy on how you would know that you’re infected, and therefore you can self-isolate.

‘To do that, the Government needs to admit that the symptoms of Covid have changed in the last two years, and that 80 per cent of people now present with cold-like symptoms.

‘And there should be a public health campaign to say at the moment, when your chances of having Covid are greater than a cold…test if you can afford it – (and) even if you can’t – assume you’ve got Covid.’ 

Scotland is not ending its free testing offer until next month, while in Wales the swabs will be offered until July. There are no plans yet to end mass testing in Northern Ireland.

The ZOE Symptom study app estimated there were 349,000 new Covid cases every day over the week to 29 March.

This was up seven per cent on the previous week, and suggested one in 15 people in the UK currently has Covid.

Professor Spector said cases were continuing to soar to ‘all time highs’ but that the slowing in the rate of increase was a promising sign. 

On Thursday, Health Secretary Sajid Javid said people must ‘learn to live with Covid’ as campaigners criticised the end of free testing.

He told reporters: ‘We are one of the most open and free countries in the world now, and that’s because of decisions that we’ve taken as a country… and it is right also as we learn to live with Covid that we withdraw free testing – universally… if it’s not needed any more, but we focus those resources on the people that need it most. And that’s what we’re doing.’

But Carers UK and the Alzheimer’s Society criticised the move, with the latter saying it ‘risks gambling’ with the lives of people living with dementia.

The Alzheimer’s Society has been campaigning to keep lateral flow tests free for all people visiting loved ones in care homes.

While free testing ends in England, it will continue during April in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and until the summer in Wales.

The most recent data shows there were 15,632 people in hospital in England with Covid-19 as of Wednesday, up 18 per cent week on week and the highest since January 19.